Automated Vehicles: Changes in expert opinions over time

Innovations in transportation can contribute to reaching relevant societal objectives (e.g. reduce emissions, congestion levels and/or risks). To determine which innovations stimulate (and not) it is important for policy makers assess their effects on beforehand. Expert judgement an often-used method this purpose. Although expert opinions provide useful input decision-making, these are potentially subject change, example, due new information becoming available or because the (academic) discussion about innovation question takes a turn. Studies that explicitly study stability and change judgements rare, but highly reliability of experts' assessments. address gap, assesses experts’ judgments at multiple points time focusing transport with widespread implications, namely Automated Vehicles (AVs). end survey was administrated group experts involved WISE-ACT project. The results indicate towards generally favorable; AVs believed delays, greenhouse gas emissions traffic accidents. consulted quite stable opinions, they less optimistic positive over time. A Q-factor analysis additionally reveals two clusters experts, one negative outlook AVs. latter beliefs will lower value travel time, thereby increasing demand, and, turn, emission levels. Overall, changing diverging among transition not necessarily regarded as desirable one.